Observed values
Anchor in Shopify records
Use accessible order lines, discounts, current financial state, and refund transactions while retaining currency and observation time.
Contribution margin evidence
Calculate Shopify Agentic Commerce Margins With Visible Inputs
Contribution margin is useful only when the merchant can distinguish observed Shopify values from supplied costs, assumptions, estimates, refunds, and unresolved data gaps.
Current product boundaryThe Shopify monitor operates in read-only OBSERVE during the private pilot. It does not process payments or hold funds.
THE OPERATING MODEL
Every number needs a source and a coverage state.
Order totals and gross sales do not describe merchant contribution. A defensible model reconciles net merchandise revenue, discounts, economic refunds, COGS, transaction or channel costs supplied by the merchant, and the timing of post-purchase changes.
AgentGateFee records whether each input is observed, merchant-supplied, assumed, estimated, or unavailable. It then applies the same formula to source cohorts whose attribution confidence remains visible.
WHAT THE RECORD MUST SHOW
Margin evidence should survive inspection at order level.
Cost inputs
Label merchant assumptions
Keep product costs and other merchant-defined inputs visibly separate from values directly observed in Shopify.
Reconciliation
Update without rewriting history
Append new refund and return facts, then derive the current contribution view while preserving earlier evidence.
EVIDENCE FLOW
A traceable contribution calculation
- 01Read the order currency and line economics
- 02Normalize discounts and net merchandise revenue
- 03Reconcile economic refunds
- 04Join COGS and declared costs
- 05Measure input coverage
- 06Calculate and compare declared source cohorts
CLEAR PRODUCT BOUNDARY
A precise percentage can still rest on incomplete evidence.
AgentGateFee does not hide missing COGS, assume that every refund returned inventory, or present estimated contribution as audited profit. Coverage and input provenance remain part of the result.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Understand the evidence before changing the workflow.
Is contribution margin the same as Shopify gross sales?
No. Contribution incorporates additional economic inputs such as discounts, refunds, COGS, and declared variable costs.
Can merchant-supplied costs be used?
Yes, when they are labeled with their source, scope, currency, validity, and coverage rather than presented as Shopify-observed values.
Does the result represent audited accounting profit?
No. It is an analytical contribution model whose inputs, assumptions, and coverage must remain visible.
START WITH EVIDENCE